The No. 1 team in the Western Conference NBA playoff bracket looks to ride its month-long hot streak when the Golden State Warriors host the Miami Heat Sunday. The Warriors (39-15) have lost just twice since Jan. 3 and are 9-1 in their last 10 games. The Heat (25-28) are playing their third of a six-game road trip, with five of those games against the West. Tip-off from Oracle Arena is 8:30 p.m. ET. The Warriors are 14-point favorites in the latest Heat vs. Warriors odds after the line moved as high as 14.5, while the action on the under has driven the total down to 220.5 from 222. You’ll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying about the game before making any Heat vs. Warriors picks of your own.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks this season. It entered Week 17 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 200-146 record on all top-rated picks, returning more than $4,000 to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 17 on a blistering 35-19 run. Anybody following it is way up.
Now the model has dialed in on Heat vs. Warriors. We can tell you it is leaning under, but it’s also generated an against the spread pick that cashes in over 60 percent of simulations. That one is available exclusively at SportsLine.
The model knows the Warriors are 14-2 in the New Year, with their only blemishes being a one-point loss to the Rockets and a nine-point defeat to the 76ers. The two-time defending NBA champions are at or near the top of many statistical categories, including first in scoring (119.1 points per game), first in field goal percentage (49.2 percent), second in three-point percentage (38.7) and third in free throw percentage (81.6). The Warriors are seventh in rebounding at 46.7 per contest.
The Warriors have three players averaging at least 22 points per game, including Stephen Curry (28.7), Kevin Durant (27.3) and Klay Thompson (22). Among the favorable trends, the Warriors are 4-2 against the spread when the line is between -16 to -13 like it is on Sunday.
But just because Golden State has been scorching the nets as of late doesn’t guarantee it’ll cover the Warriors vs. Heat spread.
That’s because the Heat have the NBA’s third-best defense (105.5 points per game) and the fact that Golden State is just 6-4 in its last 10 home games. Miami is led in scoring by Josh Richardson (17.4) and Dwyane Wade (14). Wade has matched or surpassed his season scoring average in six of the last 10 games, including a 22-point performance at Portland on Monday when the Heat kicked off their six-game road trip.
The trends have also favored the Heat. Miami is 16-10 on the road against the spread and 16-9 vs. the number as an underdog or pick’em. The Heat is also 11-7 against the spread against teams like the Warriors that win 55 percent of their games.